Conflict is increasingly consuming vast swathes of Africa, with a growing portion of the continent caught in violent upheaval. According to a recent report by Verisk Maplecroft, around 10% of Africa is currently embroiled in conflict, marking a significant rise in violence since 2010. The past three years, in particular, have seen an intensification of hostilities, with widespread insecurity across several key regions.

The Escalation of Conflict

Verisk Maplecroft’s findings underscore a worrying trend of escalating violence, notably in Sudan and the Sahel region. In Sudan, a civil war that began 19 months ago has compounded the suffering of millions. The conflict between rival military factions has displaced large numbers of people and left the country in a state of humanitarian crisis.

However, the Sudanese conflict is not an isolated incident. In the west of the Sahel region, violence has worsened significantly, fueled by a series of coups in Burkina Faso, Mali, and Niger. These countries, which were once seen as frontlines in the fight against Islamist insurgencies, have seen their security situations deteriorate. The military juntas in power, who initially pledged to bolster efforts against jihadist groups, have instead witnessed growing instability under their leadership.

Burkina Faso, in particular, is now at the epicenter of this surge in violence. According to Verisk Maplecroft, an astonishing 86% of the country is either directly involved in or is in close proximity to conflict zones. The situation in Burkina Faso serves as a stark example of the worsening security conditions in the region, where insurgents and militants continue to gain ground.

Nigeria: A Nation in Crisis

Nigeria, Africa’s most populous country, has also seen a dramatic escalation in violence. The report reveals that 44% of Nigeria’s territory is now affected by conflict, double the area impacted just three years ago. The country grapples with multiple overlapping crises, including a deadly Islamist insurgency led by Boko Haram and its offshoots, widespread banditry, and a rampant kidnapping-for-ransom industry. These challenges have compounded Nigeria’s already fragile security landscape, making it one of the most dangerous countries on the continent.

The rise in violence in Nigeria is a critical factor in the wider regional instability. As militant groups grow in strength and bandits spread fear across rural areas, the country’s government has struggled to rein in the chaos. With a general election approaching and tensions escalating, the future for Nigeria looks increasingly uncertain.

A Bleak Outlook for 2025

Verisk Maplecroft’s report warns that the situation in many of these conflict-ridden regions is likely to worsen. Hugo Brennan, the firm’s research director, predicts that all indicators point to further intensification of violence in 2025. For countries like Burkina Faso, Mali, Niger, and Nigeria, the outlook is bleak as conflict spreads, disrupts local economies, and fuels displacement on a massive scale.

For the people living in these areas, daily life has become increasingly dangerous, with civilians caught in the crossfire of ever-expanding conflict zones. Humanitarian aid efforts are strained, and international intervention seems insufficient to halt the downward spiral of violence.

The Wider Implications

The rising levels of conflict in Africa have far-reaching consequences, not just for the countries involved, but for the continent as a whole. The spread of insurgencies and the failure of political systems to address the root causes of instability—such as poverty, corruption, and inequality—create a vicious cycle of violence that is difficult to break.

As regional powers struggle to maintain control and international organizations face challenges in providing adequate support, the situation in Africa requires urgent attention. The world must recognize that the escalation of conflict in the region is not just an African problem, but one that has global implications, particularly in terms of migration, security, and the spread of terrorism.

In conclusion, Africa stands at a critical juncture. With 10% of the continent now engulfed in conflict, and the outlook for 2025 increasingly grim, the international community must act swiftly to address the underlying causes of instability and prevent further escalation. Without concerted effort and meaningful solutions, the continent’s security landscape will only continue to deteriorate.