Lagos could lose its position as sub-Saharan Africa’s most populous city to Angola’s capital, Luanda, by 2050, according to a new World Bank report projecting significantly faster population growth in the Angolan city over the next 25 years. Luanda’s population is projected to increase by 78%, from 11.4 million in 2025 to 20.3 million in 2050. Lagos, meanwhile, is expected to grow by just over 25%, from 12.8 million to 16.2 million over the same period, placing it second behind Luanda.

The projections mean Luanda is expected to add approximately 8.9 million residents by 2050, compared with 3.4 million in Lagos. The estimates are based on calculations by the World Bank and the European Commission’s Joint Research Centre, drawing on population data from Schiavina et al. (2025).

Luanda

Beyond the changing urban population rankings, the report highlights the economic challenges accompanying rapid urbanisation across sub-Saharan Africa. Between 2014 and 2024, the region added more than 181 million urban residents, while real GDP per capita remained largely unchanged at approximately $4,370.

The report estimates that sub-Saharan Africa needs to create around 15 million jobs annually to accommodate its expanding young workforce, underscoring the importance of translating urban population growth into employment opportunities and higher productivity. “A doubling of the urban population implies a need to double either urban employment or labour productivity over the same period, just for urban GDP per capita to stay constant — a daunting task,” the report states.